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It's no surprise that good looks give political candidates a boost -- but a new study suggests that's especially true among low-informed voters who watch more TV.
By Ernest A. Jasmin
So who has the best shot at taking on President Obama in 2012? Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney? Not because of his stances on, say, job creation. Please. The guy looks like Jon Hamm's older brother. Just look at that meticulously manicured 'do.
Or what about Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann? The camera loves her almost as much as the Tea Party does. Those piercing blue eyes, that pearly, confident smile.
Hey, call it superficial. But a new study conducted by a pair of political scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that many low-information voters do, indeed, cast their ballots based on candidates’ looks -- especially the ones that watch a lot of television.
Gabriel Lenz and Chappell Lawson, associate professors of political science at MIT, wrote the new paper, which published in this month’s American Journal of Political Science. They based their research on a pair of voter studies conducted in 2006. One was the 2006 Cooperative Election Study (CCES), which surveyed 36,500 citizens on their voting choices, levels of knowledge and TV viewing habits. The other, conducted by Princeton University researcher Alex Todorov, asked participants which candidates in more than 64 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races appeared more competent, based on appearance alone.
Among participants in the bottom quartile for knowledge in the CCES study, the duo discovered that a 10-point increase in a candidate’s appearance yielded a 0.8 percent increase in support among those who watch little or no television, a 2 percent increase among those with average TV viewing habits and a 4.8 percent increase in those who watch the most television.
But before next years’ candidates start calling for makeover and plastic surgery tips, note that the duo hasn’t pinpointed specifically what features make candidates look more appealing. But there appear to be cross-cultural archetypes.
Previously, Lenz and Lawson surveyed citizens in India, Mexico and the United States about candidates in other countries, and there seemed to be general consensus on who were most desirable.
“Somehow when people in India look at faces that there’s no chance they’ve ever seen before, in Brazilian deputy races, say, they can pick out the people who win reasonably accurately,” Lenz said. “But the truth is we don’t really know (why)." Lenz offers that past research has suggested that voters tend to go for a face that looks more "dominant."
Lenz expressed confidence that there is a causal link between TV imagery and voting patterns but also acknowledged other factors.
For example, the candidates who invest more into managing their images will presumably, fare better as a result. So how much do their actions contribute to data correlations versus the level of voter engagement?
“It’s an observational study, and because of that there is some worry that it’s making the wrong inference,” Lenz said. “So it’s possible that some alternative explanation like that could have given rise to our findings.”
In terms of the report's larger implications, Lenz explains, "We ask people in democracies to vote on all these sub-national races. They have very little information about them, and we don’t make information readily available to them. And so, just like they would with a new acquaintance, they tend to judge them on first impressions, largely based on appearance.”